tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post3342881139028696278..comments2024-03-04T19:54:23.562+01:00Comments on Wargaming Mechanics: Buckets of DicePhil Dutréhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13607941040736764291noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-41574618022120422872021-06-11T12:29:38.905+02:002021-06-11T12:29:38.905+02:00That follows the same procedure as outlined in the...That follows the same procedure as outlined in the post. When you only roll the 2nd dice based on successes scored on the first, that doesn't alter the combined probability. Thus, if you need a 4+ on the first dice, and again a 4+ on the second, the combined probability is 0.25. Whether you roll that 2nd dice (after a failure on the first), is irrelevant, since the fail already happened.Phil Dutréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13607941040736764291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-80832705139083638822021-06-10T21:59:14.080+02:002021-06-10T21:59:14.080+02:00How would I calculate the probability of a wound i...How would I calculate the probability of a wound if I roll multiple dice to hit, and then roll the successes again to see if I wound?Reese Crawfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06019871255809848121noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-66081647752407071492020-04-03T19:58:13.726+02:002020-04-03T19:58:13.726+02:00anydice looks like a very useful tool in this area...anydice looks like a very useful tool in this area:<br />anydice.comYoricks boneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17986786165024225295noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-79746202131170082642017-11-03T18:47:11.225+01:002017-11-03T18:47:11.225+01:00Ian,
You do roll a single D100 to generate a comb...Ian,<br /><br />You do roll a single D100 to generate a combat outcome in your system?Phil Dutréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13607941040736764291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-30696344792120060312017-10-31T19:52:27.831+01:002017-10-31T19:52:27.831+01:00I abandoned dice for random number generation, and...I abandoned dice for random number generation, and using a gaussian distribution to obtain outcomes similar to rolling 4 or more dice. This is as close to gaussian as required. Once you use this approach, the whole game process speeds up enormously. The price is to adjust games mechanics away from dice. An example of a combats results table is here<br /><br />https://iactaaleaest.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/crt-prob-small.jpg<br /><br />For rules for the wars of Louis XIV <br /><br />https://iactaaleaest.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-age-of-reason/Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08450487318721563341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-31740433819378603582017-04-04T13:33:43.744+02:002017-04-04T13:33:43.744+02:00Done!Done!Phil Dutréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13607941040736764291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-48792820926765590782017-03-29T16:27:56.557+02:002017-03-29T16:27:56.557+02:00David, I'm a SAS Man, myself!David, I'm a SAS Man, myself!Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-37361838916905139932017-03-28T19:46:25.667+02:002017-03-28T19:46:25.667+02:00That would be a possibility. Mathematically, these...That would be a possibility. Mathematically, these things can be worked out ... ;-)Phil Dutréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13607941040736764291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-3067830286238010992017-03-21T08:34:02.899+01:002017-03-21T08:34:02.899+01:00What an excellent (albeit potentially explosive) i...What an excellent (albeit potentially explosive) initiative this blog is. :-)<br /><br />I would love for you to provide similar analysis of card driven engines, or more specifically of card decks with variable amount of cards for two sides and a single card ending a game turn, as used in many rulesets by for example Too Fat Lardies.Minondashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02376213458402842211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-18169683119139919152017-02-14T13:45:48.385+01:002017-02-14T13:45:48.385+01:00Yes, the "at least one success" mathemat...Yes, the "at least one success" mathematics are often confusing to people. Good suggestion!Phil Dutréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13607941040736764291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-18853950768239262682017-02-14T13:44:37.494+01:002017-02-14T13:44:37.494+01:00Thanks!Thanks!Phil Dutréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13607941040736764291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-29486499116299240862017-02-14T13:44:26.820+01:002017-02-14T13:44:26.820+01:00Will do!Will do!Phil Dutréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13607941040736764291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-48086167467195594772017-02-14T10:28:41.616+01:002017-02-14T10:28:41.616+01:00Yes please; that'd be a great help for the pro...Yes please; that'd be a great help for the profoundly unmathematical...like me for instance. uglyfatblokehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12089620039011167403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-81920545295717372262017-02-13T22:15:16.260+01:002017-02-13T22:15:16.260+01:00Another great post, and great intro to the binomia...Another great post, and great intro to the binomial distribution for the novice. (Though these days to generate these kinds of outcome distribution tables I skip the deterministic formula and just simulate many thousands of trials in R.)<br /><br />If you're looking for a suggestion for your next post, you might write something on how to find the probability of *at least one success* for a given number of trials n and individual probability p. It's probably one of the most frequent questions I get asked, and yet many people can't seem to grasp the logic of [1 - (1-p)^n].David N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17644166021825199337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-167571258925590870.post-43821316399464470232017-02-12T18:39:18.565+01:002017-02-12T18:39:18.565+01:00Excellent analysis, Phil, offering much to conside...Excellent analysis, Phil, offering much to consider!Jonathan Freitaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07862373894196924886noreply@blogger.com